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New report shows Commons can gain control of the Brexit process

15/01/2019

The report - Seven Brexit endgame scenarios - by academic think tank The UK in a Changing Europe and the Bingham Centre for the Rule of Law looks in detail at how the Brexit process may play out in the UK Parliament following the Brexit vote.

Seven key points it makes are:

1) If an amendment rejecting the deal passes (eg Hilary Benn's amendment), the deal won't be voted on and is rejected outright

2) If the deal does not pass today, the government has to come back to parliament within three days with a statement setting out what it will do next. Within a week of that statement, there will be a vote on it in the House of Commons

a.Amending the government's business motion setting out the rules for that vote is likely to be the first chance for the Commons to take control over the parliamentary timetable, giving MPs the power to table legislation (eg to enact a second referendum)

b.If the government does not bring forward a business motion, MPs can introduce an amendment on the government's statement to take control of the parliamentary timetable

3)If the agreement passes today, it still needs to be incorporated into UK law by an Act of Parliament before 29 March

4)If there is a vote of confidence in the government and the DUP abstain, it may only require two Conservative MPs to vote against the government for it to pass

5)Revoking Article 50 requires an act of parliament (it can't be done overnight as is sometimes assumed). If that happens, we would remain in the EU under current terms

6)There are two clear and simple ways to avoid no deal: by passing the Withdrawal Agreement and its subsequent Bill, or by revoking Article 50

7)In the event that a confidence motion is passed, a cross party government could be formed if it can command the support of the House.

Read the two versions of the report:
Seven Brexit Endgame scenarios - a short guide
Seven Brexit Endgame scenarios - a guide to the parliamentary process of withdrawal from the European Union